TOMORROW – AT 11:32 A.M. ET:  There's a major election tomorrow in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District, to replace a disgraced congressman.  Republican Congressman Tim Murphy resigned late last year after admitting, not only to an extra-marital affair, but to having asked his partner to have an abortion, despite his being publicly pro-life.  What a guy!  The candidates running are Republican Rick Saccone, a lackluster candidate who death will not be marked by any noticeable change in his personality, and Conor Lamb, an attractive young Democrat and military veteran, who's been able to hide his decidedly liberal views.  From CNN: 

Former GOP Rep. Tim Murphy, who ran unopposed in both 2016 and 2014, won the district by 28 points in 2012. Republican President Donald Trump won it by about 20 percentage points, when he was losing the national popular vote by 2 points. It's a district that Republican Mitt Romney won by 17 points, when he was losing the national popular vote by 4 points.

In other words, the race shouldn't be close even if the national environment was neutral. Saccone should be winning by double digits.

Yet, the available polls show Lamb and Saccone neck-and-neck. An average of the three surveys, none of which meet CNN's polling standards, taken within three weeks of the election actually have Lamb up by a point. That means this race is a tossup given the true margin of error with 95% confidence for special House election polling averages (in which there is at least two polls part of the average) being about +/- 10 percentage points.

I'm amused by the term "CNN standards."  I wouldn't pay ten cents for those standards.

Now, any single special election can be a false positive (or false negative, depending on your angle). Eight years ago, Democrats won a closely watched special election in southwest Pennsylvania, but Republicans romped in the 2010 midterms. This year, most observers regard Lamb as a strong candidate, while Saccone is seen as a weak fundraiser. Additionally, the district is ancestrally Democratic, as seen through the 6-point Democratic advantage in party registration in the district. Party registration in the past has been crucial in explaining House results, even after controlling for the presidential lean of the district. 

COMMENT:  The district is typical of those that gave Trump his presidential victory.  It is filled with former Democrats, once part of a powerful labor movement, who saw their party betray them, even laugh at them, even call them deplorables. 

But Republicans have made the classic Republic mistake – putting up a weak candidate, and assuming victory.  Lamb, who clearly has inherited the CA gene – convenient amnesia – seems to have forgotten some of the radical stands he's taken in the past.  He is charming, and charm often overcomes all with some voters.

The president has visited to boost Saccone, and so have other major Republicans.  The national party has poured major resources into the race, hoping to avoid embarrassment.  But the fear is that we will have another Alabama, where a safe Republican seat was lost because of an inadequate candidate.

We'll know tomorrow night.  The press will make a very big deal out of a Republican defeat.

March 12,  2018